How the 2024 Presidential Election Could Impact the Housing Market

With the 2024 Presidential election right around the corner, you may be wondering how it could affect the housing market. Let’s explore what typically happens during election years and what you can expect moving forward.

Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown

Each fall, home sales tend to dip slightly due to normal, seasonal patterns. But during election years, the slowdown is often a bit more pronounced. Data from BTIG shows that home sales usually see an additional decline in the month leading up to Election Day:

Graph showing a typical dip in home sales before elections.

Why does this happen? It boils down to uncertainty. Buyers and sellers often put off big decisions—like purchasing a home—until they feel more certain about the election’s outcome. This pattern has shown up repeatedly, affecting consumer behavior in election years.

In 2024, we’re seeing the same trend. A recent survey by Redfin found that 23% of first-time homebuyers are holding off until after the election to make their move. This reflects the same uncertainty that often leads buyers and sellers to press pause temporarily.

Home Sales Rebound After Elections

The silver lining? These postponed sales typically bounce back after the election. History tells us that 82% of the time, home sales increase the year following a Presidential election:

Graph illustrating the increase in home sales in post-election years.

Once the election concludes, people gain more clarity about the future, giving them the confidence to proceed with their plans. This boost in confidence translates into increased home-buying and selling activity.

What To Expect in 2025

If historical trends hold true, the housing market will see more activity next year. According to current forecasts, total home sales for 2024 are projected to reach 4.6 million. In 2025, that number is expected to climb to 5.2 million homes:

Graph forecasting home sales growth from 2024 to 2025.

This projection aligns with the typical post-election rebound, reinforcing the idea that this year’s dip is only temporary.

Bottom Line

While the 2024 election might bring a short-term slowdown, it’s just a brief pause—not a long-term shift. Historically, home sales pick up speed once the uncertainty surrounding elections clears, and the same is expected for 2025. If you’ve been waiting for a clearer picture, the market is likely to gain momentum in the months following the election, making next year a great time to make your move.

Content inspired by Keeping Current Matters.